NASCAR at Bristol odds, picks 2019: Model says Kurt Busch surprises at Food City 500

The 2019 Food City 500 occurs on Sunday at legendary Bristol Motor Speedway. The green flag falls at two p.m. ET, and every corner counts due to the tight, steeply-banked track where death is at a premium. Last week, Denny Hamlin grabbed his next victory of this 2019 Dragon Energy NASCAR Cup Series season at Texas Motor Speedway. He has a win at Bristol under his belt and is listed at 14-1 to triumph in the latest 2019 Food City 500 chances. But, there are six drivers with 2019 NASCAR at Bristol chances better than Hamlin, as Kyle Busch (5-2) is your preferred followed by Kyle Larson (7-1), Brad Keselowski (8-1), Joey Logano (8-1), Ryan Blaney (12-1) and Kevin Harvick (12-1). So before you make your 2019 Food City 500 picks, see the NASCAR in Bristol predictions from the proven pc model at SportsLine.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive information scientist Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track record and recent results into consideration.

The version is off to a solid start in NASCAR this season, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four competition from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers in the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano at its projected top five. It was all over Kyle Busch as a top contender in the TicketGuardian 500 and four of the motorists at McClure’s top five went on to top-five finishes in the Auto Club 400. Anyone who has followed its selections is far up.

McClure, with a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events in iconic places like Bristol Motor Speedway are in his bloodstream. His model simulated the 2019 Food City 500 10,000 times and the results were so surprising.

For Sunday, we can tell you the model is high on Kurt Busch, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite heading off as a very long shot 14-1 NASCAR in Bristol odds.

Busch is a six-time winner at Bristol Motor Speedway and his brother, Kyle Busch (seven), has more wins at this track among active NASCAR drivers. This includes a victory last August in the NASCAR in Bristol race for his 30th career success in NASCAR’s top series.

The 40-year-old veteran and 2004 series champion fought his way to the front of the pack from the starting position because race and has also previously come in the 27th and 13th starting positions to succeed at Bristol. He conquer Larson by 0.367 seconds last time NASCAR visited Bristol and will again start 27th on Sunday. He is off to a hot start this season too, finishing in the top 10 in all but two races. He finished second at the Clash in Daytona and third at Atlanta.

And a massive shocker: Ryan Blaney, one of the top Vegas favorites at 12-1, does not even crack the top five. There are far better values compared to 12-1 premium he is controlling.

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